BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Towhee In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaArid-land birds

California Towhee in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

California Towhee In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.004.4
20272.00.004.4
20282.00.004.4
20292.00.004.4
20301.90.004.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording California Towhee in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KernvilleCALIFORNIA222008
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA172019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA132013
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA132025
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA102024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA72008
Forest HillCALIFORNIA52025
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA31972
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA22025
WawonaCALIFORNIA22025
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12000
SattleyCALIFORNIA11974
DownievilleCALIFORNIA11988
RivertonCALIFORNIA12025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA11988
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12010
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.