BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Towhee In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

California Towhee in Coastal California has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

California Towhee In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.817
2026139.817
2027139.817
2028139.817
2029139.817

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording California Towhee in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColmaCALIFORNIA941972
PowayCALIFORNIA861980
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA732024
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA642024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA572024
TujungaCALIFORNIA522021
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA522024
White RiverCALIFORNIA491992
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA441991
Mark WestCALIFORNIA422024
JacumbaCALIFORNIA402024
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA392024
RumseyCALIFORNIA382008
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA332024
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA332024
JacksonCALIFORNIA331992
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA302011
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA291994
SisquocCALIFORNIA282014
Gold HillCALIFORNIA252024
FolsomCALIFORNIA232024
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA212024
Anza 2CALIFORNIA212024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA201997
San YsidroCALIFORNIA202019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.