BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Towhee In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaArid-land birds

California Towhee in Coastal California has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

California Towhee In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Coastal California is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261310.017
20271310.017
2028139.917
2029139.917
2030139.917

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording California Towhee in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColmaCALIFORNIA941972
PowayCALIFORNIA861980
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA642024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA602025
TujungaCALIFORNIA522021
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA522025
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA512025
White RiverCALIFORNIA491992
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA482025
JacumbaCALIFORNIA452025
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA441991
RumseyCALIFORNIA382008
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA332024
JacksonCALIFORNIA331992
Mark WestCALIFORNIA322025
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA302011
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA291994
SisquocCALIFORNIA282014
MorenoCALIFORNIA262025
Anza 2CALIFORNIA262025
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA222025
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA222025
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA212025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA201997
San YsidroCALIFORNIA202019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.