BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestArid-land birds

California Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Towhee has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Towhee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.001.2
20270.260.001.2
20280.230.001.2
20290.210.001.2
20300.180.001.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording California Towhee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA192012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA162023
HoneydewCALIFORNIA152017
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA92012
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA92025
RuchOREGON92025
UkiahCALIFORNIA82011
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62019
NavarroCALIFORNIA52009
French GulchCALIFORNIA52007
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON52025
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22012
MccloudCALIFORNIA22006
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22021
YrekaCALIFORNIA22018
DirigioCALIFORNIA22014
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA22017
DerbyOREGON21993
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA11973
HolmesCALIFORNIA12024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12014
Rio DellCALIFORNIA11996
OrleansCALIFORNIA11975
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12015
KorbelCALIFORNIA11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.