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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Towhee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

California Towhee in Oregon has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-45%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Towhee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

California Towhee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.11
20270.000.000.11
20280.000.000.11
20290.000.000.11

California Towhee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording California Towhee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emigrant Lake 2520242002
Derby219931968
Ruch120231993
Secret Val119901978
Days Creek119731973
Emigrant Lk120011975
Modoc Point120142014
Sams Valley119991999

California Towhee Population Trend in Other States

california

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.