BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Towhee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

California Towhee in Great Basin has surged: up 539% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+539%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Towhee has surged in Great Basin: up 539% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

California Towhee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 82% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 82% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.170.050.29
20210.170.050.29
20220.170.050.29
20230.170.060.29
20240.180.060.30

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Towhee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA142019
DorrisCALIFORNIA22018
MacdoelCALIFORNIA21997
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA22011
BartleCALIFORNIA12010
Modoc PointOREGON12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.