BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Towhee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

California Towhee in Great Basin has surged: up 538% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+538%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Towhee in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

California Towhee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 82% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Towhee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 82% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.170.050.29
20210.170.050.29
20220.170.050.29
20230.170.060.29
20240.180.060.30

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Towhee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA142019
DorrisCALIFORNIA22018
MacdoelCALIFORNIA21997
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA22011
BartleCALIFORNIA12010
Modoc PointOREGON12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.