BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In Oregon

All statesOregon

5 species in this guild. As a group they are +10%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Oregon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.007.7
20263.00.007.6
20272.90.007.6
20282.90.007.5
20292.80.007.4

Member Species In Oregon

Arid-land birds species in Oregon.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-61%
California TowheePasserellidae-45%
Sage ThrasherMimidae+49%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae+88%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+143%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.