BirdAnalyst
Guild · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In Washington

All statesWashington

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +84%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Washington. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Washington Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Washington is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Washington is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.003.2
20260.750.003.2
20270.740.003.2
20280.740.003.2
20290.740.003.2

Member Species In Washington

Arid-land birds species in Washington.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-8%
Sage ThrasherMimidae+89%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+302%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.