BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In New Mexico

All statesNew Mexico

10 species in this guild. As a group they are +11%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In New Mexico Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.71–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.71–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.743.4
20262.00.733.4
20272.00.723.4
20282.00.713.4
20292.00.713.3

Member Species In New Mexico

Arid-land birds species in New Mexico.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae+9%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae+57%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae+70%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+129%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+179%
VerdinRemizidae+203%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+215%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae+307%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+385%
Gambel's QuailOdontophoridae+545%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.