BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In New Mexico

All statesNew Mexico

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -34%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In New Mexico Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.23–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.23–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.281.9
20271.10.271.9
20281.10.261.9
20291.10.241.9
20301.00.231.8

Member Species In New Mexico

Arid-land birds species in New Mexico.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-89%
Canyon TowheePasserellidae-61%
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-50%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-1%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae+1%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+11%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+40%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae+55%
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+70%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae+83%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+151%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+168%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+194%
Sage ThrasherMimidae+210%
VerdinRemizidae+282%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+358%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.