BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Curve-billed Thrasher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Curve-billed Thrasher has surged in New Mexico: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 93% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.421.6
20271.00.431.6
20281.00.441.6
20291.00.451.6
20301.10.461.6

Curve-billed Thrasher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountainair620242000
Sabinoso620191980
Variadero520221995
Grenville420211986
Jornada420251977
Pastura420251995
Clovis420242004
Lakewood320191988
Farley220241996
Torreon220121979
La Cienega220221970
Claunch219981977
Deming219711968
Maljamar219751975
Gallo Arroyo220182005
Sedan220252015
Quemado219971997
Bitter Lake220251996
Pep220151999
Queen220151996
Columbus220251993
Logan220251977
Lake Valley220211987
San Simon120181991
Cebolla120102010

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.