BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970
50Routes In State
55Years

Notable Curve-billed Thrasher Trends in New Mexico

long arc increasecomputed index

Curve-billed Thrasher has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.48–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.48–1.695% range
±47.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.431.6
20261.00.441.6
20271.00.461.6
20281.10.471.6
20291.10.481.6

Curve-billed Thrasher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in New Mexico.
Mountainair620242000
Sabinoso620191980
Jornada520241977
Variadero520221995
Grenville420211986
Clovis420242004
Gage320241969
Lakewood320191988
Pastura320241995
Bitter Lake320231996
Farley220241996
Torreon220121979
La Cienega220221970
Claunch219981977
Roswell220231969
Deming219711968
Maljamar219751975
Gallo Arroyo220182005
Quemado219971997
Pep220151999
Red Rock220241993
Emory Pass220121995
Queen220151996
Columbus220241993
Logan220241977

Curve-billed Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.