BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in New Mexico has surged: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+307%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pyrrhuloxia Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in New Mexico: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in New Mexico is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.13–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in New Mexico is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.13–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.111.4
20260.760.121.4
20270.760.121.4
20280.770.121.4
20290.770.131.4

Pyrrhuloxia Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jornada720241974
Hatchet Peak720241992
Rodeo620241976
Mesilla620001992
San Simon520191979
Gage420241968
Red Rock420242008
Hobbs319941994
Queen220021993
Cooley Lake120102010
San Antonio119741974
Carrizozo119991999
Lakewood120131992
Vicks Peak120192019
Laborcita120102000
Bitter Lake120171999
Columbus120241992
Sunshine Wll120231992
Lake Valley120061989

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.