BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Arizona has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+208%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pyrrhuloxia Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in Arizona: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Arizona is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Arizona is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.241.2
20260.750.251.2
20270.760.261.3
20280.770.271.3
20290.770.281.3

Pyrrhuloxia Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sahuarita1320241992
Bates Well620232016
Redington620231993
Mcneal620231992
Dragoon520091993
Florence519681968
Organ Pipe420232003
Red Rock 2420242015
Casa Grande320181994
Portal220241992
Pomerene220241971
San Simon220221979
Lukeville219761975
Sunizona219961970
Amado220221993
Sunizona 2220242001
Rucker120032003
New River120152015
Ajo119951969
Coolidge119841974
Peña Blanca120211977
Patagonia120121969
Red Rock120111992
Cabeza Priet120081994
Wickenburg120232021

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.