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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Texas has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pyrrhuloxia Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has collapsed in Texas: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Texas is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Texas is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.005.8
20261.20.005.6
20270.970.005.4
20280.780.005.2
20290.590.005.0

Pyrrhuloxia Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos11220172017
Presidio5220232000
San Ygnacio4419851967
Catarina 24320172011
Agua Nueva3620231969
Rachal3120231967
Girvin3120241975
Zapata3019871967
Comstock3020231967
Wink2719861975
Casa Piedra2720231986
Langtry2520001994
Mirando City2220241969
Castolon2120241994
Hot Springs2020241967
Black Gap2020231988
Shafter2019851969
Cavasara Cr.2020231995
Guerra1920231988
Dilley1820242018
Devils R Cyn1820241994
Coyanda Draw1820241994
Van Horn1820242017
Longfellow1720241968
Encinal 21620242011

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.