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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Texas has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pyrrhuloxia Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has fallen sharply in Texas: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Texas is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Texas is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.005.8
20271.10.005.6
20280.960.005.4
20290.770.005.2
20300.580.005.0

Pyrrhuloxia Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos11220172017
Pumpville6220252006
Girvin4820251975
Casa Piedra4820251986
San Ygnacio4419851967
Catarina 24320172011
Agua Nueva3620231969
Randado3520251967
Zapata3019871967
Wink2719861975
Langtry2520001994
Mirando City2320251969
Catarina 32320252018
Coyanda Draw2320251994
Presidio2220252000
Shafter2019851969
Sierra Blanc2020251999
Quitman Canyon 22020252010
Comstock1920251967
Black Gap1820251988
Cavasara Cr.1820251995
Devils R Cyn1720251994
Toyahvale1620251996
Kermit1519991999
Laredo1520231994

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.