BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia

CardinalidaeForest birdsCardinalis sinuatus

Pyrrhuloxia has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Pyrrhuloxia

The Pyrrhuloxia (Cardinalis sinuatus) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 156 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 3 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Pyrrhuloxia TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.43
20260.080.000.42
20270.070.000.41
20280.060.000.40
20290.050.000.39

Where the Pyrrhuloxia Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pyrrhuloxia, sized by most recent count.

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend by State

Pyrrhuloxia population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+208%197028
New Mexico+307%197619
Texas-76%1969109

Pyrrhuloxia Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pyrrhuloxia population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie-80%196914
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+347%197214
Edwards Plateau-35%19739
Oaks and Prairies-11%19699
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+7%197414
Sierra Madre Occidental+78%197115
Chihuahuan Desert-35%196948
Tamaulipan Brushlands-85%196926
Gulf Coastal Prairie+35%19747

Pyrrhuloxia Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 68% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.