BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pyrrhuloxia In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pyrrhuloxia In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0031
20270.000.0031
20280.000.0031
20290.000.0031
20300.000.0031

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San YgnacioTEXAS441985
Catarina 2TEXAS432017
Agua NuevaTEXAS362023
RandadoTEXAS352025
ZapataTEXAS301987
Mirando CityTEXAS232025
Catarina 3TEXAS232025
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS182025
LaredoTEXAS152023
Encinal 2TEXAS142025
El IndioTEXAS132007
MillettTEXAS122012
SejitaTEXAS102024
CatarinaTEXAS82010
HondoTEXAS82025
El SauzTEXAS82023
Millett 2TEXAS82024
EncinalTEXAS72010
GuerraTEXAS72025
La PryorTEXAS52009
RaymondvilleTEXAS52025
George WestTEXAS42025
Pedro CreekTEXAS42010
RachalTEXAS32025
DilleyTEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.