BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+347%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.14–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±200.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.14–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.110.78
20260.460.120.79
20270.460.130.80
20280.470.140.80
20290.480.140.81

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SilverTEXAS52024
HawleyTEXAS42006
Pear ValleyTEXAS32024
GraybackTEXAS32012
MertzonTEXAS32019
HackberryTEXAS32012
EldoradoTEXAS32023
LakeviewTEXAS32009
WinchellTEXAS22024
GirardTEXAS22012
RotanTEXAS12015
Mertzon 2TEXAS12024
WallTEXAS12019
Shields 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.