BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pyrrhuloxia In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+199%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Pyrrhuloxia In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.14–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.14–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.120.78
20270.450.120.79
20280.460.130.79
20290.470.140.80
20300.470.140.81

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SilverTEXAS132025
Pear ValleyTEXAS72025
WinchellTEXAS42025
HawleyTEXAS42006
GraybackTEXAS32012
MertzonTEXAS32019
HackberryTEXAS32012
EldoradoTEXAS32023
LakeviewTEXAS32009
GirardTEXAS22012
RotanTEXAS12015
Mertzon 2TEXAS12025
WallTEXAS12019
Shields 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.