BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pyrrhuloxia In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 228% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±347.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+228%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±347.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 228% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±347.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.5
20260.420.001.4
20270.410.001.4
20280.400.001.4
20290.390.001.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS1122017
WinkTEXAS271986
KermitTEXAS151999
SaragosaTEXAS62024
San SimonNEW-MEXICO52019
HobbsNEW-MEXICO31994
MentoneTEXAS32015
RankinTEXAS22024
StilesTEXAS22022
MidlandTEXAS22015
Kermit 2TEXAS22024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12010
PostTEXAS12019
Frankel CityTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.