BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pyrrhuloxia In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Pyrrhuloxia In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 1.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 1.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.71.714
20277.71.614
20287.71.614
20297.71.614
20307.61.614

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS622025
GirvinTEXAS482025
Casa PiedraTEXAS482025
LangtryTEXAS252000
Coyanda DrawTEXAS232025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO222025
PresidioTEXAS222025
ShafterTEXAS201985
Sierra BlancTEXAS202025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS202025
ComstockTEXAS192025
Black GapTEXAS182025
Devils R CynTEXAS172025
ToyahvaleTEXAS162025
Van HornTEXAS132025
SlaughterTEXAS122021
Chisos BasinTEXAS112025
Hot SpringsTEXAS102025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS102006
LongfellowTEXAS92025
CastolonTEXAS92025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO72024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS72009
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Ozona 2TEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.