BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Pyrrhuloxia In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.4 (95% range 1.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.4 (95% range 1.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.51.514
20267.51.413
20277.41.413
20287.41.413
20297.41.413

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PresidioTEXAS522023
GirvinTEXAS312024
ComstockTEXAS302023
Casa PiedraTEXAS272023
LangtryTEXAS252000
CastolonTEXAS212024
Hot SpringsTEXAS202024
Black GapTEXAS202023
ShafterTEXAS201985
Devils R CynTEXAS182024
Coyanda DrawTEXAS182024
Van HornTEXAS182024
LongfellowTEXAS172024
Chisos BasinTEXAS152024
PumpvilleTEXAS142024
SlaughterTEXAS122021
Dove Mtn.TEXAS102006
Bear MtnTEXAS82024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS82024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO72024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO72024
ToyahvaleTEXAS72024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS72009
RodeoNEW-MEXICO62024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.