BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pyrrhuloxia In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.5
20261.10.002.5
20271.10.002.6
20281.10.002.6
20291.10.002.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA132024
RedingtonARIZONA62023
McnealARIZONA62023
DragoonARIZONA52009
PomereneARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA22022
SunizonaARIZONA21996
AmadoARIZONA22022
PortalARIZONA22024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
Peña BlancaARIZONA12021
PatagoniaARIZONA12012
Carr MtnARIZONA12023
RuckerARIZONA12003
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.