BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pyrrhuloxia has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.5
20261.10.002.5
20271.10.002.6
20281.10.002.6
20291.10.002.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA132024
RedingtonARIZONA62023
McnealARIZONA62023
DragoonARIZONA52009
PomereneARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA22022
SunizonaARIZONA21996
AmadoARIZONA22022
PortalARIZONA22024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
Peña BlancaARIZONA12021
PatagoniaARIZONA12012
Carr MtnARIZONA12023
RuckerARIZONA12003
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.