BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pyrrhuloxia In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Pyrrhuloxia in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pyrrhuloxia in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Pyrrhuloxia In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.09–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pyrrhuloxia in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.09–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.071.3
20260.690.081.3
20270.690.081.3
20280.690.081.3
20290.700.091.3

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Pyrrhuloxia in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS72024
CampbelltonTEXAS62024
BriteTEXAS62024
HobsonTEXAS22023
Lone OakTEXAS22021
YoakumTEXAS22000
LockhartTEXAS12018
AlbanyTEXAS12024
FanninTEXAS11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.