BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in New Mexico has surged: up 545% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+545%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in New Mexico: up 545% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.1–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.1–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.42.88.0
20265.52.98.1
20275.63.08.2
20285.63.08.2
20295.73.18.3

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita7520191992
Laborcita 25020242022
Red Rock4320241992
Columbus3920241992
Aztec3619891988
Gage3520241968
Farmington3119871975
San Antonio3119771974
La Plata2120131990
Rodeo1820241977
Hatchet Peak1720241992
La Plata 21520162014
Jornada1420241974
Sunshine Wll1120241992
Lake Valley920241979
Horse Mtn820241968
Vicks Peak720241992
Mesilla720001992
Reserve520231993
Engle519891979
Emory Pass420241993
Sanostee420232022
Escondida320241998
Valencia219911973
Magdalena220241997

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.