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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Arizona has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Arizona is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 9.4–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Arizona is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 9.4–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026229.135
2027229.236
2028229.236
2029239.336
2030239.436

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley10420241996
Wickenburg9420232017
Bartlett Res6320251992
Bates Well5920231995
New River5520161974
Florence5219881968
Casa Grande5220231989
Dragoon4920091993
Red Rock 24720242015
Organ Pipe4620231990
Carr Mtn4320251985
Coolidge4019851974
Cutter4020141992
Gila Bend3620241995
Wikieup3420241992
Alamo Res.3320251992
Aztec Peak3219781974
San Simon3120241969
Skull Valley 23120252025
Cabeza Priet3020251993
Portal2920251975
Riviera2820251992
Cutter 22720182015
Rucker2620091993
Pisinimo2619931992

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.