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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Utah has surged: up 911% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+911%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in Utah: up 911% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Utah is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±192.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Utah is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.111.2
20260.660.121.2
20270.670.131.2
20280.680.141.2
20290.690.151.2

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aneth3620242024
Shivwitz3220241992
Boulder319901990
Moquith Mtn220242007
Wellington 2220032003
Hatch120242009
Main Canyon120031987
Moab119861986
Newcastle120042003

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.