BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Texas

All statesGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Texas has surged: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

29×Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gambel's Quail in Texas. See the full index history below.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Texas is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.71–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Texas is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.71–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.581.7
20271.20.611.8
20281.20.641.8
20291.20.681.8
20301.30.711.9

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Canyon 27120252010
Quitman Cyn.3520091999
Van Horn3320252017
Sierra Blanc1820251999
Slaughter1620141978
Presidio620252004
Casa Piedra220232022
Canutillo120251994

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicoutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.