BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Gambel's Quail in Nevada has surged: up 662% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+662%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in Nevada: up 662% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Nevada is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.62–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Nevada is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.62–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.493.8
20262.20.523.9
20272.20.563.9
20282.30.593.9
20292.30.624.0

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jean Lake4220131973
Nelson3820241995
Ash Meadows3820241993
Meadow Vally1020241996
Beatty1020241987
Val Of Fire820242010
Willis520031996
Hiko220231968
Caliente220191994

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.