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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGame birds

Gambel's Quail in Nevada has surged: up 813% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+813%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gambel's Quail Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gambel's Quail has surged in Nevada: up 813% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gambel's Quail Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Nevada is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gambel's Quail in Nevada is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.583.9
20272.30.613.9
20282.30.644.0
20292.30.684.0
20302.40.714.0

Gambel's Quail Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Gambel's Quail in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jean Lake4220131973
Ash Meadows2920251993
Meadow Vally1220251996
Nelson1020251995
Beatty1020241987
Val Of Fire820242010
Willis520031996
Caliente520251994
Hiko120251968

Gambel's Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.