BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

10 species in this guild. As a group they are -78%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Arid-land birds as a group have collapsed in Texas, down 78% since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Texas is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Texas is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.002.4
20260.780.002.3
20270.720.002.3
20280.660.002.2
20290.600.002.2

Member Species In Texas

Arid-land birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-77%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae-76%
VerdinRemizidae-74%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae-73%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-59%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-44%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae-13%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+75%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+94%
Gambel's QuailOdontophoridae34×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.