BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -71%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Arid-land birds as a group have fallen sharply in Texas, down 71% since 1969.

Arid-land Birds In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Texas is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Texas is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.740.001.7
20270.710.001.7
20280.690.001.6
20290.660.001.6
20300.630.001.6

Member Species In Texas

Arid-land birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-69%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae-68%
VerdinRemizidae-66%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-51%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-33%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-32%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae-26%
Canyon TowheePasserellidae-25%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+15%
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+15%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+64%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+94%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.