BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-crowned Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.16–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.16–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.161.6
20260.860.161.6
20270.860.161.6
20280.860.161.6
20290.860.161.6

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey1220241994
Duran1019991995
Chisos Basin620241995
Allen Creek620241994
Rockspring620241994
Salt Flat620151995
Lockhart519711971
Shields 2520232005
Toyahvale520241996
Longfellow520241968
Valentine519861971
Zapata419741974
Marfa420242004
Comstock420231967
Indian Mtn420241976
Boerne320191969
Bear Mtn320241988
Prairie Mtn.320241994
Hot Springs320241968
Shafter319851974
Whit Mtn.320181994
Dalhart320001998
Hobson219851983
Utopia220241969
Fitzhugh219831969

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.