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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-crowned Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.14–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.14–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.840.141.5
20270.840.141.5
20280.840.141.5
20290.840.141.5
20300.830.141.5

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R Cyn1420251994
Marfa1020252004
Duran1019991995
Leakey920251994
Salt Flat620151995
Chisos Basin520251995
Lockhart519711971
Harper520251969
Valentine519861971
Zapata419741974
San Saba420251969
Allen Creek420251994
Longfellow420251968
Ft. Davis320252004
Dripping Spg320251985
Boerne320191969
Shields 2320252005
Bear Mtn320241988
Prairie Mtn.320241994
Comstock320251967
Shafter319851974
Whit Mtn.320181994
Silver320252006
Indian Mtn320251976
Dalhart320001998

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.