BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in New Mexico has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-crowned Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.20–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.170.91
20260.550.180.92
20270.550.190.92
20280.560.190.93
20290.570.200.93

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emory Pass1020241996
Capitan Mtn.820151993
Wagon Mound519741970
Reserve420221995
Pinon420241992
Grenville320241968
Variadero320221994
Carrizozo220231968
Caprock219801980
Gage220231992
Magdalena220241998
Sabinoso220211980
Lake Valley220231979
Farley120172017
Salt Lake 2120162006
La Cienega120171988
Cooley Lake119991972
Horse Spgs120172017
Horse Mtn119991999
Cloudcroft119781978
Rosebud120242009
Quemado119931993
Corona East119951995
Vicks Peak120241994
Red Rock120231992

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.