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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesArid-land birds

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 491% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+491%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-crowned Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.07–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.07–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.050.48
20270.270.060.48
20280.280.060.49
20290.280.070.49
20300.280.070.50

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East1020252006
Wichita Mts West320252007
Big Cedar119771976
Blanco119821968
Phroso120252012
Phillips119771977
Mill Creek119771977
Reed120021985
Cooperton120251992
Lookout119741967

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.