BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+269%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-crowned Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has surged in Oklahoma: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.06–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.06–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.050.43
20260.240.050.43
20270.240.050.43
20280.250.060.44
20290.250.060.44

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East420222006
Wichita Mts West220212007
Cooperton220241992
Big Cedar119771976
Blanco119821968
Phroso120242012
Phillips119771977
Mill Creek119771977
Reed120021985
Lookout119741967

Rufous-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.