BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In Nevada

All statesNevada

14 species in this guild. As a group they are -55%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Arid-land birds as a group have fallen sharply in Nevada, down 55% since 1970.

Arid-land Birds In Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.40.0024
20273.10.0024
20282.70.0024
20292.40.0023
20302.00.0023

Member Species In Nevada

Arid-land birds species in Nevada.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Crissal ThrasherMimidae-91%
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-78%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-77%
LeConte's ThrasherMimidae-60%
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-51%
Sage ThrasherMimidae-49%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-42%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae+22%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+52%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+70%
VerdinRemizidae+235%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+320%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+770%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.