BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In Oklahoma

All statesOklahoma

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +159%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Oklahoma Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.11–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.11–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.090.71
20270.400.100.71
20280.410.100.71
20290.410.110.72
20300.420.110.72

Member Species In Oklahoma

Arid-land birds species in Oklahoma.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae-5%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+133%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+491%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.