BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting

CardinalidaeForest birdsPasserina amoena

Lazuli Bunting has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+382%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
860RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lazuli Bunting

The Lazuli Bunting (Passerina amoena) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 860 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Lazuli Bunting TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in surveyed states: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.70 (95% range 0.59–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.70 (95% range 0.59–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.560.79
20260.680.570.80
20270.690.570.81
20280.700.580.81
20290.700.590.82

Where the Lazuli Bunting Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lazuli Bunting, sized by most recent count.

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend by State

Lazuli Bunting population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-87%197612
California+7%1970202
Colorado+340%197181
Idaho+602%197058
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Montana+115%197086
Nebraska-43%19826
Nevada16×197730
New Mexico-92%197218
North Dakota-66%196919
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a6
Oregon+43%1970104
South Dakota+31%197023
Texasinsufficient datan/a3
Utah+136%197076
Washington+27%197070
Wyoming-36%197064

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lazuli Bunting population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-47%197089
Great Basin+241%1970181
Northern Rockies+60%1970175
Prairie Potholes+11%196913
Sierra Nevada12×197335
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+89%1970139
Badlands and Prairies+97%196976
Shortgrass Prairie-46%197820
Coastal California+52%197098
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-45%197112
Sierra Madre Occidental-89%19819

Lazuli Bunting Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 382% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.