BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Analysis

CardinalidaeForest birdsPasserina amoena

Lazuli Bunting has surged: up 466% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+466%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
871RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lazuli Bunting

The Lazuli Bunting (Passerina amoena) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 871 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Lazuli Bunting TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in surveyed states: up 466% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.61–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.61–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.580.82
20270.710.590.83
20280.710.590.83
20290.720.600.84
20300.730.610.85

Where the Lazuli Bunting Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lazuli Bunting, sized by most recent count.

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend by State

Lazuli Bunting population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-87%197612
California+46%1970202
Colorado+289%197183
Idaho+756%197058
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Montana+117%197086
Nebraska-53%19827
Nevada18×197730
New Mexico-86%197219
North Dakota-57%196919
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a6
Oregon+47%1970106
South Dakota+25%197024
Texasinsufficient datan/a3
Utah+206%197077
Washington+31%197071
Wyoming+20%197066

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lazuli Bunting population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-47%197090
Great Basin+238%1970183
Northern Rockies+111%1970177
Prairie Potholes+54%196913
Sierra Nevada15×197335
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+111%1970142
Badlands and Prairies+98%196978
Shortgrass Prairie-37%197820
Coastal California+122%197098
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-32%197112
Sierra Madre Occidental-90%19819

Lazuli Bunting Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 466% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.