BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Idaho has surged: up 602% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+602%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Idaho: up 601% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 3.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.9 (95% range 3.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.73.36.1
20264.73.46.1
20274.83.46.2
20284.93.56.2
20294.93.56.3

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic Mtn6420241987
Salmon River4520211988
Gifford1920171971
Almo1920231988
Nezperce1720121968
Glenns Ferry1519861985
Featherville1420241989
Crane Creek1220191989
Silver City1220241989
Challis820241975
Coolin720241986
Joel720241989
Baldy Mountain620162013
Pierce520051993
Rochat Divde520231994
Daniels Res420191988
Pasadena Val420121987
Pocatello320191979
Cobalt320241989
Preston320171988
Cabarton320231988
Naples220241972
Grangeville220241986
Baker220241975
Cascade219841984

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.