BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in California has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
202Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lazuli Bunting in California. See the full index history below.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.34.7
20273.52.34.7
20283.52.34.7
20293.62.34.8
20303.62.44.8

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pollock Pines5820251997
Alderpoint4320121974
Forest Hill4320251998
Cohasset3920251994
Martins Fy3720091976
Lakeshore3220241973
Paxton2720251998
Shasta Lake1920251972
Tuolumne Grove1720251974
Anza1619951976
Honeydew1520171968
Rio Dell1420121972
Genesee1420241972
Friday Ridge1420251994
Kings Canyon1320241972
Kernville1320082008
South Fork Mtn1320222000
Horse Creek1220191970
Holmes1220251968
Iron Gate1220191988
Offield Mtn1120131973
Pilot Creek1119961994
Poway1019801973
Ono1020111984
Longvale1020231972

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.