BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Nevada has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

16×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Nevada: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nevada is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nevada is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.873.3
20262.10.913.3
20272.20.953.4
20282.20.993.4
20292.21.03.5

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally3420241996
Austin2820182008
Jarbidge1420151997
Chimney Res.1420232015
Humboldt Nf 21120242021
Hawthorne920011997
Ruby Valley820001997
Carson River720022001
Willis720241988
Hiko620121968
Gardnerville520121992
Ranchogrande420241991
Walker Can420241987
Fish Creek320211997
Toiyabe Nf320242014
Humboldt Nf220191993
Ash Meadows220231996
Majors Place220242011
Charleston Reservoir220242024
Piute Mdws120192019
Midas120242024
Comins Lake120132005
Sand Pass120021992
Cortez119771977
Ruby Valley 2120242018

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.