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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Nevada has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

18×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Nevada: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nevada is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nevada is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.893.3
20272.10.933.3
20282.20.973.4
20292.21.03.4
20302.21.03.5

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Austin2820182008
Meadow Vally2320251996
Jarbidge1420151997
Humboldt Nf 21120252021
Hawthorne920011997
Ruby Valley820001997
Carson River720022001
Hiko620121968
Gardnerville520121992
Ranchogrande420241991
Walker Can420241987
Fish Creek320211997
Toiyabe Nf320242014
Humboldt Nf220191993
Ash Meadows220231996
Majors Place220242011
Charleston Reservoir220242024
Piute Mdws120192019
Midas120242024
Comins Lake120132005
Sand Pass120021992
Cortez119771977
Ruby Valley 2120242018
Virgin Creek120181995
Dobbin Creek119951993

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.