BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in South Dakota has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lazuli Bunting in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±300.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.60
20260.230.000.60
20270.240.000.60
20280.240.000.61
20290.240.000.61

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Pass2420101971
Badlands1520142001
Roubaix Lk419911970
Ft Thompson319721969
Long Draw319991997
Tripp220092009
Promise219881973
Harding219901985
Elk Mountain219931993
Geddes120122012
Winner120062004
Rockyford120142003
Wind Cave Np120222004
Custer119891967
Reva120241985
Lodgepole119991999
Hayes120172017
Pleasant Val120232019
Hill City120041996
Black Fox120172017
Englewood120012001
Hazelrodt120131992
Lightning Cr120082004

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.