BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Utah has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+136%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Utah: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.2
20262.00.004.2
20272.00.004.2
20282.00.004.2
20291.90.004.2

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch5520231994
Hyrum2719791975
Soapstone1720241992
Skyline Driv1720161986
Uintah Nf1619941988
Lost Cr. Res1520181995
Ant Flat-Ogden Can1420231994
La Sal 21320062003
Heber Mtn.1220241996
Newcastle1020221997
Navajo Lake920242000
Gooseberry820241996
Goose Creek Mtn.820232002
Beaver620241968
Wellington 3520242013
Altonah420061975
Goshen420241973
Wellington 2420102005
Beck 2420181990
Promontory320242010
Oak City320241972
Castleton319851969
Fayette320211993
Castle Dale320142001
Hanna320241997

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.