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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Utah has surged: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+206%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Utah: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Utah is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Utah is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.004.3
20272.00.004.3
20282.00.004.3
20292.00.004.3
20302.00.004.3

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch5520231994
Soapstone3620251992
Hyrum2719791975
Skyline Driv2220251986
Ant Flat-Ogden Can2220251994
Heber Mtn.2020251996
Uintah Nf1619941988
Lost Cr. Res1520181995
La Sal 21320062003
Beck 21120251990
Gooseberry1020251996
Navajo Lake920242000
Fayette920251993
Goose Creek Mtn.720252002
Newcastle620251997
Wellington 3520242013
Woodruff520252003
Ferron420252000
Wellington 2420102005
Promontory320242010
Oak City320241972
Goshen320251973
Castleton319851969
Johnson Can320241987
Beryl320191988

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.