BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Montana has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+115%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Montana: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.952.2
20261.60.962.3
20271.60.982.3
20281.60.992.3
20291.71.02.3

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point1520241977
Clancy1520232017
Cabin Creek1120192019
Jordan1020241968
Threemile Wa1020241994
Pryor Mtn.920242001
Circle819751975
Sula820241986
Wolf Creek820222015
East Glacier Park720242015
Muddy Creek720152015
Libby Dam620241982
Cleveland620241998
Forsyth620231992
Fish Creek620242000
Freeman Creek620162015
Polson520241988
Woodman520231978
Laurel520221968
Brandenberg520191968
Thompson Riv520162014
Glen520241977
Arlee420241972
Highwood420241972
Clinton420241972

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.