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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Montana has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+117%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Montana: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.972.2
20271.60.982.3
20281.61.02.3
20291.71.02.3
20301.71.02.3

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Threemile Wa1320251994
Reed Point1220251977
Miles City1120252016
Cabin Creek1120192019
Cleveland1020251998
Jordan1020241968
East Glacier Park1020252015
Logan Pass920251988
Circle819751975
Sula820241986
Wolf Creek820222015
Pryor Mtn.820252001
Muddy Creek720152015
Forsyth620231992
Fish Creek620242000
Freeman Creek620162015
Laurel520221968
Thompson Riv520162014
Winifred 2520252024
Noxon420231999
Skalkho-Rye420222000
Wolf Point420242016
Chuffey Spring420252023
Arlee320251972
Brusett320241984

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.