BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-53%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.060.000.16
20290.060.000.16
20300.060.000.16

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge220242000
Crawford220251980
Brady120032003
Oglala Nat. Grass.120112011
Crescent Lk120131994
Murray Lake120122012
Sutherland120252025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.