BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-92%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has collapsed in New Mexico: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.39
20240.000.000.39
20250.000.000.39
20260.000.000.39
20270.000.000.39

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire420001992
Vallecitos320071994
Cebolla220111977
Reserve219961996
Mesilla219991998
Ojo Sarco120221969
La Cienega120162016
Pecos120161992
Laborcita 2120222022
Maxwell120012001
La Plata120101999
Valencia119881988
La Plata 2120142014
Counselor120072007
Dulce120032003
Angel Fire 2120172005
Gallinas120131992
Variadero120192005

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.