BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-86%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has collapsed in New Mexico: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.39
20270.000.000.39
20280.000.000.39
20290.000.000.39
20300.000.000.39

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire420001992
Vallecitos320071994
Gallinas320251992
Cebolla220111977
Reserve219961996
Mesilla219991998
Ojo Sarco120221969
La Cienega120162016
Pecos120161992
Valencia119881988
Dulce120032003
Angel Fire 2120172005
Maxwell120012001
Laborcita 2120222022
La Plata 2120142014
Counselor120072007
Variadero120192005
La Plata120101999
Sanostee120252025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.