BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in North Dakota is projected to rise about 295% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+295%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±335.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in North Dakota is projected to rise about 295% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.24–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.211.8
20261.00.221.8
20271.00.231.8
20281.00.231.8
20291.00.241.8

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roosevelt Pk1520191982
Stanley720241967
Gorham320161968
Dunn Center220231972
Tobacco220191968
Danzig119951993
Regan119921987
Ft Yates120031980
Dickinson120152001
Carpio119981968
Lark119771977
Bowman120171974
Zap120191967
Cedar Creek120162016
Golva120231986
Glen Ullin119971997
Parshall120001995
Douglas Crk120212006
Solen120232009

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.