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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Colorado has surged: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+289%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lazuli Bunting Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Colorado: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Lazuli Bunting Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Colorado is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Colorado is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.07–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.091.8
20270.920.091.7
20280.910.081.7
20290.910.081.7
20300.900.071.7

Lazuli Bunting Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas Pass4220241982
Yampa2120231972
Baxter Pass1820241994
Stillwater Pass 21420252022
De Beque1120251992
Rifle Falls920251998
Wilson Creek720251990
Walsenburg520251996
Nucla520242000
Cheesman Lk420251971
Pagosa Spgs419821971
Cokedale420251995
Harmony320251973
Thomasville320251997
Paonia320251992
Comanche Pk320241994
Ludlow320111998
Animas 2320172005
Gold Hill 2320252024
Aspen220251979
Colona219961972
Castleton220131988
Crowley220222022
Lake City220021999
Trinchera220251996

Lazuli Bunting Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.