BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lazuli Bunting in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.54.0
20272.71.54.0
20282.71.53.9
20292.71.43.9
20302.61.43.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA432012
Martins FyCALIFORNIA372009
Hazel CampOREGON362022
UmpquaOREGON302025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA192025
CinderellaOREGON192025
ElktonOREGON162025
HoneydewCALIFORNIA152017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA142012
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA142025
GreenOREGON142025
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA132022
Secret ValOREGON132025
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA122019
HolmesCALIFORNIA122025
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA112013
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA111996
MolallaOREGON112025
LongvaleCALIFORNIA102023
ProspectOREGON102025
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON92025
RuchOREGON92025
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA72014
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA72017
Emigrant LkOREGON72001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.