BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+89%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.78–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.78–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.752.5
20261.60.762.5
20271.60.762.5
20281.60.772.5
20291.70.782.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas PassCOLORADO422024
De BequeCOLORADO222024
YampaCOLORADO212023
Baxter PassCOLORADO182024
Skyline DrivUTAH172016
SoapstoneUTAH172024
Uintah NfUTAH161994
Lost Cr. ResUTAH152018
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH142023
La Sal 2UTAH132006
Heber Mtn.UTAH122024
Navajo LakeUTAH92024
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO82023
GooseberryUTAH82024
WalsenburgCOLORADO72023
BeaverUTAH62024
Willow PeakCOLORADO52021
NuclaCOLORADO52024
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO52024
Wellington 3UTAH52024
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO41982
Wilson CreekCOLORADO42024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO42024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO42000
AltonahUTAH42006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.