BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.81–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.81–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.782.5
20271.70.792.5
20281.70.792.5
20291.70.802.5
20301.70.812.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas PassCOLORADO422024
SoapstoneUTAH362025
Skyline DrivUTAH222025
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH222025
YampaCOLORADO212023
Heber Mtn.UTAH202025
Baxter PassCOLORADO182024
Uintah NfUTAH161994
Lost Cr. ResUTAH152018
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO142025
La Sal 2UTAH132006
De BequeCOLORADO112025
Beck 2UTAH112025
GooseberryUTAH102025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO92025
Navajo LakeUTAH92024
FayetteUTAH92025
Wilson CreekCOLORADO72025
WalsenburgCOLORADO52025
NuclaCOLORADO52024
Wellington 3UTAH52024
WarbonnetWYOMING52025
Cheesman LkCOLORADO42025
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO41982
CokedaleCOLORADO42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.