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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Lazuli Bunting In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA72024
ClevelandMONTANA62024
Wolf PointMONTANA42024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
GlasgowMONTANA11994
OswegoMONTANA11984
RedstoneMONTANA12001
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA11995
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA11992
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA11998
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA12000
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.