BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lazuli Bunting In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.24
20270.120.000.24
20280.120.000.24
20290.120.000.24
20300.120.000.24

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClevelandMONTANA102025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA82025
Wolf PointMONTANA42024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
GlasgowMONTANA11994
OswegoMONTANA11984
RedstoneMONTANA12001
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA11995
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA11992
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA11998
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA12000
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA12021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.