BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lazuli Bunting In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.491.6
20261.00.501.6
20271.00.511.6
20281.10.521.6
20291.10.531.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA242010
Reed PointMONTANA152024
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA152019
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA152014
Cabin CreekMONTANA112019
JordanMONTANA102024
CircleMONTANA81975
ForsythMONTANA62023
BrandenbergMONTANA52019
Pine TreeWYOMING51980
HighwoodMONTANA42024
Winifred 2MONTANA42024
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA41991
BrusettMONTANA32024
Miles CityMONTANA32023
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA32016
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA31972
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA31999
Wheat BasinMONTANA22021
Custer 2MONTANA22024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA22023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA22019
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA21988
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA21990
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.