BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
175Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.73.6
20262.71.83.7
20272.71.83.7
20282.71.83.7
20292.81.83.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salmon RiverIDAHO452021
NewbridgeOREGON432024
BridgeportOREGON342022
Buckskin MtnWYOMING332021
Hells CanyonOREGON292022
CloverlandWASHINGTON262024
TwickenhamOREGON202024
NezperceIDAHO172012
ClancyMONTANA152023
FeathervilleIDAHO142024
KellerWASHINGTON142007
LaurierWASHINGTON142022
MonumentOREGON132024
Crane CreekIDAHO122019
Eagle CreekOREGON112022
Threemile WaMONTANA102024
LogdellOREGON102024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA92024
Malheur Res.OREGON92023
ChallisIDAHO82024
SulaMONTANA82024
Wolf CreekMONTANA82022
Hash RockOREGON82024
ChewelahWASHINGTON82021
CoolinIDAHO72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.