BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Northern Rockies: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.93.9
20272.91.93.9
20282.91.93.9
20293.02.04.0
20303.02.04.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hells CanyonOREGON672025
NewbridgeOREGON412025
Buckskin MtnWYOMING412025
Salmon RiverIDAHO392025
BridgeportOREGON252025
CloverlandWASHINGTON212025
NezperceIDAHO172012
CobaltIDAHO172025
ChallisIDAHO162025
TwickenhamOREGON162025
CoolinIDAHO152025
FeathervilleIDAHO152025
SpartaOREGON152025
LogdellOREGON142025
Summit PrOREGON142025
OchocoOREGON142025
KellerWASHINGTON142007
Threemile WaMONTANA132025
WallowaOREGON132025
Crane CreekIDAHO122019
MonumentOREGON122025
Donelly 2OREGON122025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA102025
Colter Bay 2WYOMING102025
Logan PassMONTANA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.