BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin has surged: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+238%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
183Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Great Basin: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.3–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.3–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.13.9
20273.12.23.9
20283.12.24.0
20293.12.24.0
20303.12.34.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic MtnIDAHO582025
Hardware RanchUTAH552023
ImnahaOREGON462025
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON322025
AustinNEVADA282018
HyrumUTAH271979
AlmoIDAHO262025
TwispWASHINGTON262024
Meadow VallyNEVADA232025
NighthawkWASHINGTON232025
GiffordIDAHO192017
LakeviewOREGON172025
EllensburgWASHINGTON172025
Glenns FerryIDAHO151986
AdrianOREGON152025
YakimaWASHINGTON152025
JarbidgeNEVADA142015
Iron GateCALIFORNIA122019
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA112025
Modoc PointOREGON102018
HawthorneNEVADA92001
BartleCALIFORNIA82021
Ruby ValleyNEVADA82000
WapatoWASHINGTON82022
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.