BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+241%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Great Basin: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lazuli Bunting In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.13.9
20263.02.13.9
20273.02.23.9
20283.12.24.0
20293.12.24.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ImnahaOREGON732024
Magic MtnIDAHO642024
Hardware RanchUTAH552023
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON382024
Meadow VallyNEVADA342024
AustinNEVADA282018
HyrumUTAH271979
Trout CreekOREGON262021
TwispWASHINGTON262024
GiffordIDAHO192017
AlmoIDAHO192023
NighthawkWASHINGTON162024
Glenns FerryIDAHO151986
EllensburgWASHINGTON152024
YakimaWASHINGTON152024
JarbidgeNEVADA142015
Chimney Res.NEVADA142023
AdrianOREGON142021
Iron GateCALIFORNIA122019
Silver CityIDAHO122024
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA112024
Modoc PointOREGON102018
NewcastleUTAH102022
HawthorneNEVADA92001
BartleCALIFORNIA82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.