BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lazuli Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Lazuli Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-37%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lazuli Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lazuli Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.12
20270.020.000.12
20280.020.000.12
20290.020.000.12
20300.020.000.11

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrowleyCOLORADO22022
TrincheraCOLORADO22025
CrawfordNEBRASKA22025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA22024
FlemingCOLORADO12015
AbarrCOLORADO11978
HudsonCOLORADO12016
Wildhorse LCOLORADO12015
VillegreenCOLORADO12019
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11996
KarvalCOLORADO11996
ElbertCOLORADO12024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12022
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12012
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12019
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12001
FeltOKLAHOMA12021
ChanningTEXAS11998
LingleWYOMING11998
ChugwaterWYOMING12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.