BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lazuli Bunting In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Lazuli Bunting in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

12×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lazuli Bunting has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Lazuli Bunting In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lazuli Bunting in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.0–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.92.77.2
20265.02.87.3
20275.12.97.4
20285.22.97.5
20295.33.07.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Lazuli Bunting in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA522024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA322024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA302024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA162024
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA152024
GeneseeCALIFORNIA142024
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA132024
KernvilleCALIFORNIA132008
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA92017
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA82024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA62024
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA62018
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA52019
StrawberryCALIFORNIA52019
RivertonCALIFORNIA32023
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA32024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA22015
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22022
Silver CityCALIFORNIA22013
SattleyCALIFORNIA22011
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA22014
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22023
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.