BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker

PicidaeForest birdsSphyrapicus varius

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
608RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Yellow-bellied Sapsucker

The Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Sphyrapicus varius) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 608 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 25 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in surveyed states: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.49–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.49–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.470.80
20260.640.470.81
20270.650.480.81
20280.660.490.82
20290.660.490.83

Where the Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, sized by most recent count.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend by State

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut+426%197416
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Iowainsufficient datan/a4
Maine-19%196875
Marylandinsufficient datan/a7
Massachusetts+566%196916
Michigan+739%196870
Minnesota+392%197078
New Hampshire+138%196825
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a1
New York+269%1968107
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a5
North Dakota13×197911
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Pennsylvania44×196860
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a1
Utahinsufficient datan/a1
Vermont+156%196826
Virginia+362%19975
West Virginia11×199913
Wisconsin+330%196878

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+570%197432
Boreal Hardwood Transition+339%1968125
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain16×196862
Atlantic Northern Forest+75%1968155
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+52%20048
Prairie Hardwood Transition+726%196879
Appalachian Mountains23×1968115
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast14×196827

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 101% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.